Position 1

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105

1 point match

pip: 117 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=---CCbC-CB-------cbbcc--A-:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:1:10

to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

White is behind in the race, has a better board (no 5pt gap) and prime. My reflex is to make my 2pt. Why risk breaking the anchor and leave myself open to attack? Turns out there are a number of reasons.

First, making the 2pt weakens my offensive position. I have a nice prime, but I only have three spares to work with. I'll need those to make my 3pt, or to hit loose there if Brown steps up. Meanwhile, the 2pt doesn't do much for me. It hardly hinders Brown from stepping up, and while it might come in handy if I were able to put Brown on the bar, I won't have enough material to pull off an attack without compromising my prime, which is my strongest asset.

On the other side of the board, there is some danger in breaking the anchor. I could be attacked and distracted long enough for Brown to get over my prime. But there is plenty of risk for Brown too. As noted, I do have the better board and the better prime, so I shouldn't be overly fearful of mixing it up. And even Brown comes out on top in a hitting war, he will still have the problem of escaping his straggler before he crunches.

Brown's clearest path to victory, and therefore my biggest concern, is to simply hop my prime and run for it. Obviously, his 62 joker hangs over me like a guillotine. And making my 2pt does nothing whatsoever to address that.

The anchor breaking play (20/14 20/18) does, however. It would leave me a direct 5 shot (in addition to 33 and 63) at the fleeing checker. As a bonus, there is meaningful duplication of Brown's 2s, which he would need both to hit and to step up. Best of all, if Brown does nothing special, the game is practically gin.

I don't think this is a particularly difficult position, but I would have blown it (It was XG's move) by making the obvious play and failing to consider whether I was actually addressing the needs of the position.

By the way, if we change the position by advancing Brown's rear checker to White's 2pt so that White can point on his head, the anchor breaking play is still clearly best. Brown simply isn't much of a threat unless he gets to the edge of the prime or over it, and those are the possibilities White should preparing to counter.

Here are rollouts of both the original position and the variation mentioned above:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105

1 point match

pip: 117 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=---CCbC-CB-------cbbcc--A-:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:1:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	20/18 20/14	eq: +0.544
	Player: Opponent: 77.21% (G:13.07% B:0.48%) 22.79% (G:4.56% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.541...+0.547) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 4/2	eq: +0.468 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 73.42% (G:13.83% B:0.75%) 26.58% (G:5.23% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.465...+0.472) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104

1 point match

pip: 117 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=---CCbC-CB-------cbbcc-A--:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:1:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	20/18 20/14	eq: +0.553
	Player: Opponent: 77.66% (G:13.74% B:0.75%) 22.34% (G:4.98% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.550...+0.557) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2* 4/2	eq: +0.499 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 74.96% (G:14.68% B:0.42%) 25.04% (G:4.54% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.502) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2