Position 3: Hotspots

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 175

1 point match

pip: 162 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b-a--E-C---cE--bc-dA--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

I had a choice of making my 3pt on Brown's head or making his 5pt and bringing a fourth checker down to my 8pt.

Over the board, I felt my position was inflexible after 13/8 23/20. I imagined leaving blots in my outfield or inner board and ending up with three or more checkers behind Brown's main army. I saw that 8/3* 6/3 does two good things -- putting Brown on the bar and making a new inner board point -- and I wasn't too afraid of Brown entering and attacking me on the 20pt. I'd have the stronger board, and we'd be fighting on his side of the table.

I think that analysis is fairly sound, as far as it goes, but it lead me to the wrong play. Making the 20pt is clear, and in retrospect it seems obvious. The hotspot in this position is Brown's 5pt. The rest of the board is pretty quiet. I should be looking to resolve the hotspot, to either make the point or get off of it. 13/8 23/20 solves the problem, directly and permanently. 8/3* 6/3 perpetuates the problem by addressing it only indirectly and and partially.

The rollout:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 175

1 point match

pip: 162 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b-a--E-C---cE--bc-dA--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	23/20 13/8	eq: +0.096
	Player: Opponent: 54.82% (G:18.23% B:1.63%) 45.18% (G:10.69% B:1.04%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.091...+0.102) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/3	eq: +0.048 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 52.42% (G:23.77% B:4.27%) 47.58% (G:12.34% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.042...+0.055) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 29771930 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2