Position 5

is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 109

1 point match

pip: 127 score: 0 is Chase

XGID=-A-a-CBCB-B-b-a--b-cbB-bb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10

to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

This 21 isn't all that useful. I can't hit Brown's outfield blot. I can't make a new blocking point. And attacking on the 3pt leaves a double shot from the bar against Brown's stronger board. I figured I'd make the most of it with 10/8 7/6. This leaves 2 shots in exchange for creating an extra builder/attacker for next turn, which seems like a decent trade off.

What I didn't consider is that there won't be a "next turn" if Brown rolls any 6. He'll just run into the outfield and have a pretty easy time of it from there. Once you appreciate that, hitting loose on the 3pt, and depriving him of a "winning" 6, becomes a lot more attractive.

5/3* 7/6 is the best play, and while it comes at the risk of  20 direct shots, it's a relative risk -- relative to the risk of leaving Brown alone to roll his 6. I won't like it if I'm hit back, but Brown will still be trapped behind my broken prime, and I'm a favorite to enter and get some counterplay going.

In the actual game, I was appropriately punished for my misplay, as Brown rolled 66 and cruised home easily.

The rollout:

is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 109

1 point match

pip: 127 score: 0 is Chase

XGID=-A-a-CBCB-B-b-a--b-cbB-bb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10

to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/6 5/3*	eq: -0.102
	Player: Opponent: 44.88% (G:8.71% B:0.37%) 55.12% (G:26.73% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.107...-0.098) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	10/8 7/6	eq: -0.135 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 43.26% (G:8.05% B:0.28%) 56.74% (G:14.32% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.139...-0.131) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73285410 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2