Position 6

is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 98

1 point match

pip: 73 score: 0 is Chase

XGID=-BABbCD-C--------a-bccbaa-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

The 6 is forced, then find a 1.

Over the board, I dismissed 6/5 since it leaves a shot on 66 next turn. Then I had a choice between 3/2 and 2/1. I chose 3/2 for reasons I don't recall and can't reconstruct. Perhaps I simply hallucinated. In any case, 3/2 is a surprisingly large error, one I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have made if I'd approached the problem in the right way.

My poor rolls next turn are 64 and 61, both of which leave a blot, so I should be looking to make those rolls play as constructively as possible. 2/1 is obviously better than 3/2, then, since it allows me to remake the 2pt and have a five point board with either roll.

Here's the rollout. Note the second best move (8/2 6/5) is almost as good, even though it pays off to 66 next turn. My play (8/2 3/2) is much worse, even though it avoids blotting on 66 next turn. Since I will roll 64 or 61 four times as often as 66, planning for those rolls is much more important than avoiding the bad 66.

is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 98

1 point match

pip: 73 score: 0 is Chase

XGID=-BABbCD-C--------a-bccbaa-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: +0.725
	Player: Opponent: 86.25% (G:4.46% B:0.02%) 13.75% (G:0.47% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.723...+0.727) - [66.1%] Duration: 33.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 6/5	eq: +0.725 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 86.23% (G:5.00% B:0.02%) 13.77% (G:0.41% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.723...+0.726) - [33.9%] Duration: 37.4 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2 3/2	eq: +0.708 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 85.41% (G:3.79% B:0.02%) 14.59% (G:0.49% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.707...+0.710) - [0.0%] Duration: 36.7 seconds
4.	1-ply	8/7 8/2	eq: +0.161 (-0.564)
	Player: Opponent: 58.04% (G:5.84% B:0.02%) 41.96% (G:7.61% B:0.11%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77140590 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2