Friday, November 6, 2015

Position 7




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
                         


1 point match
                         
pip: 121
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-B-B-aDBB----Aa--bbbbbcB--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

At DMP, it's often right, in positions like this, to hit on and slot key points. The hope is to make those points, prime Op's straggler, and get him to compromise his offense. It's a long shot strategy, but the situation is so desperate that there isn't much else to do. And since gammons don't matter, there's little downside to having a bunch of checker sent back. In fact, if you don't succeed in containing the straggler, you want those checkers sent back, as it will sometimes keep you on the bar and prevent you from collapsing your own offensive structure. If you can avoid that, you just might hit a lucky shot and snag a satisfying win.

That was my approach here. I played 8/5* 13/7, hoping to be missed, then to make my 5pt and keep Brown trapped behind my mini-prime until something shakes lose on the other side of the board.

What I overlooked is that I already have a mini-prime and a chance to shake something lose on the other side of the board. As things sit, Brown is vulnerable to an immediate 33. It isn't much, but the swing on that one roll is very nice for me. Playing 8/5* takes away that nice root number and gives Brown no bad rolls in exchange.

The rollout:



is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
                         


1 point match
                         
pip: 121
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-B-B-aDBB----Aa--bbbbbcB--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout113/4eq: -0.722

Player:
Opponent:
13.91% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
86.09% (G:9.78% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.724...-0.720) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout113/7 6/3eq: -0.737 (-0.016)

Player:
Opponent:
13.13% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
86.87% (G:9.73% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.739...-0.736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 7/1eq: -0.753 (-0.031)

Player:
Opponent:
12.37% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
87.63% (G:14.41% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.755...-0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
4.Rollout18/2 7/4eq: -0.761 (-0.039)

Player:
Opponent:
11.96% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
88.04% (G:27.65% B:3.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.763...-0.758) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout113/7 8/5* eq: -0.761 (-0.039)

Player:
Opponent:
11.93% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
88.07% (G:26.61% B:3.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.764...-0.759) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5077922
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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