Position 9

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 112 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-abBC-DBaA--bB---a-dbA-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10

to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

If I ever decide to post a "Blunder of the Day," this would be a good candidate.

I wasn't sure what to do and decided to swing away with 13/8*. This is a bad idea for a couple of reasons, and I should have known better. First, my play leaves four blots scattered about, and that should always be a red flag. I've got a solid advantage here, but bad things can happen in a hurry where blots are concerned. There needs to be a huge upside to take on even a small risk of things blowing up in your face. There's really no such upside in this position. In fact, the second reason my play is so bad is that there is actually a huge downside to hitting. I really don't want Brown making a second anchor in my board, especially with the extra timing that comes with the hit. That's just going to foul up the whole wretched mess.

I should have simply played 21/18 9/7. It may look risky, but it's not really. Brown has so many checkers back that there's not a lot he can do to me. If I get hit, I just make another run for it. I'm far enough ahead that I can afford to do this several times. As long as I'm not exposing several blots, I should be okay.

The rollout:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

1 point match

pip: 112 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-abBC-DBaA--bB---a-dbA-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	21/18 9/7	eq: +0.296
	Player: Opponent: 64.82% (G:35.86% B:9.76%) 35.18% (G:6.50% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.291...+0.302) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/7 6/3	eq: +0.245 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 62.27% (G:37.24% B:9.38%) 37.73% (G:8.32% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.240...+0.251) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout1	9/7 4/1*	eq: +0.238 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 61.92% (G:37.29% B:8.06%) 38.08% (G:9.16% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.233...+0.244) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 01 second
4.	Rollout1	21/16	eq: +0.236 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 61.79% (G:34.09% B:7.10%) 38.21% (G:11.78% B:1.28%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.230...+0.241) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds
5.	Rollout1	9/4	eq: +0.206 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 60.30% (G:35.40% B:8.37%) 39.70% (G:10.02% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.200...+0.212) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
6.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: +0.184 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 59.21% (G:37.38% B:9.40%) 40.79% (G:13.42% B:1.81%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.179...+0.190) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
7.	Rollout1	13/8*	eq: +0.184 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 59.19% (G:37.87% B:11.66%) 40.81% (G:13.28% B:2.30%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.178...+0.190) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60451593 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2