After 200 games, my SP PR is 6.70. This is down from 6.78 last time.
My checker PR is 5.87, down from 5.92, and my cube PR is 10.58, unchanged from last time.
I haven't been getting very many games in recently. Between the holiday break and the transition to Phase 2, I lost a lot of momentum. I'm avoiding trying to "buckle down" and get more heavily into it, however, because I think I'd burn out and end up taking an extended break. The plan is to proceed at my own pace and hopefully ease back into a more active rhythm.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Thursday, December 17, 2015
PWC: Progress Report 7
After 100 games my SG PR is 6.78.
My checker PR is 5.92 and my cube PR is 10.61.
This is much slower going than DMP. Having to stop and consider cube decisions obviously slows me down quite a bit, but checker decisions are slower too. There is just a lot more to consider with gammons and the cube in the mix. I expect getting to a 5.0 PR will take a lot longer than it did for DMP.
One thing I didn't expect is that my DMP play has gotten worse. When I was playing nothing but DMP, I was getting constant reinforcement. Now that I'm developing new patterns and instincts, I often find myself uncertain of both the DMP and the SP play. I've kind of lost my mojo. I may have to work some long DMP sessions into the mix to keep that part of my game sharp.
As far as the cube goes, I think I will have to start studying position types at some point. Cubes don't come up often enough, and are so varied, that's it's hard to make much progress. Now that I have the first 100 games in the bank, I need to figure out a way to break things down into more digestible chunks.
As I mentioned before, I expect the progress reports to be much farther apart than during Phase 1. Things have gotten exponentially more complex.
My checker PR is 5.92 and my cube PR is 10.61.
This is much slower going than DMP. Having to stop and consider cube decisions obviously slows me down quite a bit, but checker decisions are slower too. There is just a lot more to consider with gammons and the cube in the mix. I expect getting to a 5.0 PR will take a lot longer than it did for DMP.
One thing I didn't expect is that my DMP play has gotten worse. When I was playing nothing but DMP, I was getting constant reinforcement. Now that I'm developing new patterns and instincts, I often find myself uncertain of both the DMP and the SP play. I've kind of lost my mojo. I may have to work some long DMP sessions into the mix to keep that part of my game sharp.
As far as the cube goes, I think I will have to start studying position types at some point. Cubes don't come up often enough, and are so varied, that's it's hard to make much progress. Now that I have the first 100 games in the bank, I need to figure out a way to break things down into more digestible chunks.
As I mentioned before, I expect the progress reports to be much farther apart than during Phase 1. Things have gotten exponentially more complex.
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
PWC: Progress Report 6
I've made some decisions on how I am going to proceed with Phase 2, and I'm easing back into study mode after a short break.
One note: I've never cared for the term money game, for several reasons. First, I don't play for money. Second, money game isn't very descriptive; it implies that money is at stake (when it may not be) while not really saying anything about the game itself. Anything can be a "money game." Third, it's typically understood that money games are played with the Jacoby rule in effect. I don't like the Jacoby rule and won't be using it in my study, so stepping away from that connotation is a plus.
Likewise, I've never cared for the term unlimited games, which has become the replacement term for money games. It's a better term than money games, but it doesn't roll off the tongue well, and it too is not all that descriptive. A game of backgammon is not "unlimited." Nor is a session of games "unlimited." The length may be indefinite or unspecified, but it is not unlimited; it will end at some point.
In any case, I'll be using the terms session play (SP) and session games (SG) from now on. I find them easier on the ears, and more descriptive of what I'll be doing. For my purposes, a session is one or more distinct games, using the cube, with gammons and backgammons counting, and no Jacoby rule in effect.
Having gotten that out of the way, I've decided on a simple approach for Phase 2: I'll be playing session games and analyzing them as usual. At the same time, I'll be on the lookout for instances where the best move doesn't win the most single games. These are cases where the SP move is likely different from the DMP play. In this way, I can work on my SP while still striving to improve my DMP skills, and studying the differences should give me a better feel for how and when to take gammons into account.
I've only got a few SP games under my belt so far, but I've noticed that studying in this way is slower than it was with DMP. I'll still be giving progress reports after every 100 games, but they will be less frequent, since I'm not getting in as many games each day.
One note: I've never cared for the term money game, for several reasons. First, I don't play for money. Second, money game isn't very descriptive; it implies that money is at stake (when it may not be) while not really saying anything about the game itself. Anything can be a "money game." Third, it's typically understood that money games are played with the Jacoby rule in effect. I don't like the Jacoby rule and won't be using it in my study, so stepping away from that connotation is a plus.
Likewise, I've never cared for the term unlimited games, which has become the replacement term for money games. It's a better term than money games, but it doesn't roll off the tongue well, and it too is not all that descriptive. A game of backgammon is not "unlimited." Nor is a session of games "unlimited." The length may be indefinite or unspecified, but it is not unlimited; it will end at some point.
In any case, I'll be using the terms session play (SP) and session games (SG) from now on. I find them easier on the ears, and more descriptive of what I'll be doing. For my purposes, a session is one or more distinct games, using the cube, with gammons and backgammons counting, and no Jacoby rule in effect.
Having gotten that out of the way, I've decided on a simple approach for Phase 2: I'll be playing session games and analyzing them as usual. At the same time, I'll be on the lookout for instances where the best move doesn't win the most single games. These are cases where the SP move is likely different from the DMP play. In this way, I can work on my SP while still striving to improve my DMP skills, and studying the differences should give me a better feel for how and when to take gammons into account.
I've only got a few SP games under my belt so far, but I've noticed that studying in this way is slower than it was with DMP. I'll still be giving progress reports after every 100 games, but they will be less frequent, since I'm not getting in as many games each day.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
PWC: Progress Report 5
Graduation Day!
After 1000 1-point matches, my PR is 4.93.
This is down from 5.07 last time and, with that, Phase 1 of Project World Class (PWC) is officially a wrap.
To celebrate, I'm going take a bit of a break. I've been sticking with it pretty consistently, and I think pushing on immediately is apt to lead to burn out. Besides, I need to work out how I am going to approach Phase 2.
Phase 2 will be a transition to money (unlimited) play, with the goal of reaching a money PR of 5.0. However, I don't want to focus solely on money games. I still have a lot of room for improvement in my DMP play, and I want to keep pushing my PR down toward 4.0 on that front (though this is not officially a Phase 2 goal).
What I have in mind is an approach where I am working at money and DMP in tandem, comparing the effects of gammons and the cube for each move. I have a few ideas on how I might go about this, but I need to work out the details. I need an approach that is quick and simple, otherwise I risk getting bogged down with the technological side of things.
Until then... Woohoo. Go me.
After 1000 1-point matches, my PR is 4.93.
This is down from 5.07 last time and, with that, Phase 1 of Project World Class (PWC) is officially a wrap.
To celebrate, I'm going take a bit of a break. I've been sticking with it pretty consistently, and I think pushing on immediately is apt to lead to burn out. Besides, I need to work out how I am going to approach Phase 2.
Phase 2 will be a transition to money (unlimited) play, with the goal of reaching a money PR of 5.0. However, I don't want to focus solely on money games. I still have a lot of room for improvement in my DMP play, and I want to keep pushing my PR down toward 4.0 on that front (though this is not officially a Phase 2 goal).
What I have in mind is an approach where I am working at money and DMP in tandem, comparing the effects of gammons and the cube for each move. I have a few ideas on how I might go about this, but I need to work out the details. I need an approach that is quick and simple, otherwise I risk getting bogged down with the technological side of things.
Until then... Woohoo. Go me.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Position 9
 is Player 2score: 0 pip: 159 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 112 score: 0  is Player 1
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-abBC-DBaA--bB---a-dbA-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 32
| ||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
If I ever decide to post a "Blunder of the Day," this would be a good candidate.
I wasn't sure what to do and decided to swing away with 13/8*. This is a bad idea for a couple of reasons, and I should have known better. First, my play leaves four blots scattered about, and that should always be a red flag. I've got a solid advantage here, but bad things can happen in a hurry where blots are concerned. There needs to be a huge upside to take on even a small risk of things blowing up in your face. There's really no such upside in this position. In fact, the second reason my play is so bad is that there is actually a huge downside to hitting. I really don't want Brown making a second anchor in my board, especially with the extra timing that comes with the hit. That's just going to foul up the whole wretched mess.
I should have simply played 21/18 9/7. It may look risky, but it's not really. Brown has so many checkers back that there's not a lot he can do to me. If I get hit, I just make another run for it. I'm far enough ahead that I can afford to do this several times. As long as I'm not exposing several blots, I should be okay.
The rollout:
|
is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 112 score: 0 is Player 1
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-abBC-DBaA--bB---a-dbA-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 32
| ||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/18 9/7 | eq: +0.296 | |||
|
||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/7 6/3 | eq: +0.245 (-0.051) | |||
|
||||||
| 3. | Rollout1 | 9/7 4/1* | eq: +0.238 (-0.058) | |||
|
||||||
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/16 | eq: +0.236 (-0.061) | |||
|
||||||
| 5. | Rollout1 | 9/4 | eq: +0.206 (-0.090) | |||
|
||||||
| 6. | Rollout1 | 6/1* | eq: +0.184 (-0.112) | |||
|
||||||
| 7. | Rollout1 | 13/8* | eq: +0.184 (-0.113) | |||
|
||||||
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60451593 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Monday, November 9, 2015
Position 8: Take up the gauntlet!
| is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 126 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 153 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=--a-B-D-BB--bC--abbe-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 21
| ||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
I've come to think of a blot on my Op's 9pt as a challenge to my manhood.
The reason is that, between the threat of simply making the 9pt and the variety of combinations which make other key offensive points, a builder on the 9pt is so well placed that it cannot be allowed to persist beyond the immediate turn. You must step up to challenge it directly, or take aggressive action on the other side of the board to create counterthreats of your own. Op has thrown down the gauntlet. You must take it up! Or forever hold your manhood cheap (apologies to the Bard).
I'm being a bit dramatic, of course, but Marty Storer has convinced me that stating rules of thumb as absolutes (Always make the 5pt, Always hit, etc.) is more helpful than stating them conditionally (When in doubt, make the 5pt; When in doubt, hit, etc.). The more definitive the statement, the easier it is to remember, and the more reliably will you apply it. That there will be exceptions goes without saying, but the absolute formulation requires a damn good reason to overturn. And the truth is, if the rule of thumb isn't robust enough to hold up as a near absolute, it's probably not all that helpful.
So, is my gauntlet rule sufficiently robust to be stated as an absolute? I don't know, but I've found it so helpful that (in the spirit of absoluteness) I'm going treat it as such until I'm convinced it is not.
The rollout:
| is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 126 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 153 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=--a-B-D-BB--bC--abbe-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 21
| ||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.143 | |||
|
||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/7 6/5 | eq: -0.207 (-0.064) | |||
|
||||||
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.208 (-0.065) | |||
|
||||||
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/10 | eq: -0.221 (-0.078) | |||
|
||||||
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.235 (-0.092) | |||
|
||||||
| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28711547 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Friday, November 6, 2015
Position 7
|
is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 100 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 121 score: 0 is Player 1
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-B-B-aDBB----Aa--bbbbbcB--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 63
| ||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
At DMP, it's often right, in positions like this, to hit on and slot key points. The hope is to make those points, prime Op's straggler, and get him to compromise his offense. It's a long shot strategy, but the situation is so desperate that there isn't much else to do. And since gammons don't matter, there's little downside to having a bunch of checker sent back. In fact, if you don't succeed in containing the straggler, you want those checkers sent back, as it will sometimes keep you on the bar and prevent you from collapsing your own offensive structure. If you can avoid that, you just might hit a lucky shot and snag a satisfying win.
That was my approach here. I played 8/5* 13/7, hoping to be missed, then to make my 5pt and keep Brown trapped behind my mini-prime until something shakes lose on the other side of the board.
What I overlooked is that I already have a mini-prime and a chance to shake something lose on the other side of the board. As things sit, Brown is vulnerable to an immediate 33. It isn't much, but the swing on that one roll is very nice for me. Playing 8/5* takes away that nice root number and gives Brown no bad rolls in exchange.
The rollout:
|
is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 100 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 121 score: 0 is Player 1
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-B-B-aDBB----Aa--bbbbbcB--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 63
| ||||||||||||||||
1. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.722 | |||
|
||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/3 | eq: -0.737 (-0.016) | |||
|
||||||
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/4 7/1 | eq: -0.753 (-0.031) | |||
|
||||||
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/2 7/4 | eq: -0.761 (-0.039) | |||
|
||||||
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/5* | eq: -0.761 (-0.039) | |||
|
||||||
|
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 5077922 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Saturday, October 31, 2015
PWC: Progress Report 4
After 900 1-point matches, my PR is 5.07.
This is up from 5.04 last time, so a bit of a setback over the last 100 matches. I went through a difficult stretch just after my last progress report where my PR rose sharply over the course of 60 or so games. I don't know if the decisions during that time happened to be tougher than usual or if I was just playing poorly. I'd guess it was more the latter than the former, but probably a mix of the two. In any case, I played fairly well toward the end and managed to nudge my PR back down.
The good news is that XG reports my PR over my last 500 games as 4.93, which gives me some hope that I can reach and sustain a PR lower than 5.0 over the long haul. For now, I continue to grind away.
I haven't put enough time into learning the best replies to all the openings. For the most part I'm solid, but there are a few areas where I am guessing quite a lot. I was quizzing myself on replies to 52S last week, for example, and found that several of the proper replies surprised me. Learning these is just a matter of putting in the time, of course, but it's a bit boring, so it takes some discipline.
This is up from 5.04 last time, so a bit of a setback over the last 100 matches. I went through a difficult stretch just after my last progress report where my PR rose sharply over the course of 60 or so games. I don't know if the decisions during that time happened to be tougher than usual or if I was just playing poorly. I'd guess it was more the latter than the former, but probably a mix of the two. In any case, I played fairly well toward the end and managed to nudge my PR back down.
The good news is that XG reports my PR over my last 500 games as 4.93, which gives me some hope that I can reach and sustain a PR lower than 5.0 over the long haul. For now, I continue to grind away.
I haven't put enough time into learning the best replies to all the openings. For the most part I'm solid, but there are a few areas where I am guessing quite a lot. I was quizzing myself on replies to 52S last week, for example, and found that several of the proper replies surprised me. Learning these is just a matter of putting in the time, of course, but it's a bit boring, so it takes some discipline.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Position 6
|
is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 98 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 73 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-BABbCD-C--------a-bccbaa-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 61
| ||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
The 6 is forced, then find a 1.
Over the board, I dismissed 6/5 since it leaves a shot on 66 next turn. Then I had a choice between 3/2 and 2/1. I chose 3/2 for reasons I don't recall and can't reconstruct. Perhaps I simply hallucinated. In any case, 3/2 is a surprisingly large error, one I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have made if I'd approached the problem in the right way.
My poor rolls next turn are 64 and 61, both of which leave a blot, so I should be looking to make those rolls play as constructively as possible. 2/1 is obviously better than 3/2, then, since it allows me to remake the 2pt and have a five point board with either roll.
Here's the rollout. Note the second best move (8/2 6/5) is almost as good, even though it pays off to 66 next turn. My play (8/2 3/2) is much worse, even though it avoids blotting on 66 next turn. Since I will roll 64 or 61 four times as often as 66, planning for those rolls is much more important than avoiding the bad 66.
|
is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 98 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
|
pip: 73 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-BABbCD-C--------a-bccbaa-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 61
| ||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/1 | eq: +0.725 | |||
|
||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/2 6/5 | eq: +0.725 (-0.001) | |||
|
||||||
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/2 3/2 | eq: +0.708 (-0.017) | |||
|
||||||
| 4. | 1-ply | 8/7 8/2 | eq: +0.161 (-0.564) | |||
|
||||||
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77140590 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Position 5
| is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 109 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 127 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-A-a-CBCB-B-b-a--b-cbB-bb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 21
| ||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
This 21 isn't all that useful. I can't hit Brown's outfield blot. I can't make a new blocking point. And attacking on the 3pt leaves a double shot from the bar against Brown's stronger board. I figured I'd make the most of it with 10/8 7/6. This leaves 2 shots in exchange for creating an extra builder/attacker for next turn, which seems like a decent trade off.
What I didn't consider is that there won't be a "next turn" if Brown rolls any 6. He'll just run into the outfield and have a pretty easy time of it from there. Once you appreciate that, hitting loose on the 3pt, and depriving him of a "winning" 6, becomes a lot more attractive.
5/3* 7/6 is the best play, and while it comes at the risk of 20 direct shots, it's a relative risk -- relative to the risk of leaving Brown alone to roll his 6. I won't like it if I'm hit back, but Brown will still be trapped behind my broken prime, and I'm a favorite to enter and get some counterplay going.
In the actual game, I was appropriately punished for my misplay, as Brown rolled 66 and cruised home easily.
The rollout:
| is XG Roller++ score: 0 pip: 109 |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
1 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 127 score: 0 is Chase
|
||||||||||||||||
| XGID=-A-a-CBCB-B-b-a--b-cbB-bb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 21
| ||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/6 5/3* | eq: -0.102 | |||
|
||||||
2. | Rollout1 | 10/8 7/6 | eq: -0.135 (-0.032) | |||
|
||||||
| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73285410 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)